Getting over the line

It’s pretty clear that the pro-independence side holds a small but steady lead in the polling for a second independence referendum. All seven polls since last September that don’t weight based on the 2014 results show Yes in the lead. They average 53% for Yes. But, the majority of pollsters still apply weightings based on the 2014 voting patterns; which results in more skewed figures with every day that passes. And, disappointingly, one of the better pollsters in the business, Opinium, have somehow been persuaded to change their method in their most recent poll. I have no idea what it was about the Murdoch-owned Times newspaper that influenced their approach!

Whatever the motivation, it’s pretty obvious why a run of six straight Yes leads from Opinium since 2021 has changed to a narrow No lead. You can see from the weighted sample they used in this poll that the proportion of No voters has been boosted by 7 points since the same time last year, while the proportion of new voters has dropped by the same amount.

If Opinium had used the exact same weightings as in their own poll of September 2023, Yes would have a lead of 5.6 points in the most recent poll.

But aside from dodgy polls that are designed to show what those commissioning them want to show, we still need to increase support for independence so that we can gain international support for a second referendum. When asked about possible routes out of the union; commentators and UK Labour politicians like Ian Murray often cite consistent polling as a key factor that may influence policy. And besides, can we really expect an upping of the ante around tactics such as civil disobedience and non-violent direct action when we’re not even sure we have the support of the majority?

But how do we get there?

Reaching the right people

There are two key groups who need to be persuaded to move towards the Yes side:

• Soft No voters, and

• Undecided voters.

If we can understand who they are, and what might be influencing their voting behaviour, it might be easier to build a strategy to increase Yes support.

Persuadable No voters

We’ll look at this group first, based on their greater potential impact on increasing the Yes vote. They are a larger group than the undecided and shifting them to yes will have a direct impact not only on increasing the Yes vote, but also on reducing the No vote. The recent poll by Opinium looked at a range of issues, split down by a Nationalist/ Unionist categorisation that included ‘Persuadable Unionists’. Based on this poll, the group makes up around 15% of the electorate. That means, if we can move half of these people to Yes we’ll be getting close to 60%.

Undecided voters

Undecided voters make up somewhere between 7% and 9% of likely voters. They are more likely to be younger people, females and those who have no children in their household. Using Survation’s 0 to 10 scale on the question of independence, four out of ten undecided voters place themselves right in the middle; with 31% leaning towards Yes and 27% leaning towards No.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, undecided voters are less driven by constitutional issues. Only 4% identify this as a key electoral issue, compared with 27% of all voters. So, the benefits of independence need to be firmly tied to other policy outcomes.

Looking at what these voters thought were the strongest arguments for independence; persuadable No voters are more likely to identify controlling Scotland’s natural resources and making decisions that affect Scots in Scotland. To a lesser extent these issues also chime with undecided voters.

It’s Scotland’s Energy

Combining these two issues would therefore provide a powerful campaigning message. I’m old enough (just) to remember the ‘It’s Scotland’s Oil’ campaign in the early 1980s. This campaign was very successful in highlighting the injustice of the Thatcher Government’s asset-stripping of Scotland while many Scots still lived in poverty.

Do people realise that Scots pay the highest standing charges for energy use and have higher rates of fuel poverty, despite the highest per capita rate of energy generation?

At the same time the UK Government is building the infrastructure to direct our renewable energy to power London and the South of England (who pay the lowest standing charges). There’s a powerful argument to be made here that will chime with a large group of soft No voters. Maybe we should ask the question:

Shouldn’t we use Scotland’s resources to overcome poverty in Scotland rather than subsidise London’s energy bills?

An economy with a future

Perhaps linked to decision-making and resources, growing Scotland’s economy is another touchstone issue for many voters. But, the economy as an overall concept is maybe seen as too esoteric by many people. It needs to be broken down to more digestible concepts. After all, UK Labour managed to win an election in Scotland without having any policies to grow Scotland’s economy.

Instead of getting into the mechanics of maximising our skilled workforce and developing our competitive advantage through using our vast natural resources, we might just want to pose a simple question:

Why, with all our talent and resources, does Scotland not do as well economically as similar countries like Denmark, Norway and Ireland?

Yes to a liveable planet

Another series of questions in the Opinium poll asked respondents what issues they thought would get better after independence and which would get worse. I looked at the net difference between better and worse for both undecided and persuadable No voters. As the chart shows, there was one issue which both groups considered would get better after independence, which was environmental and climate change issues. This is likely to be partly the legacy of the SNP/Green coalition; which pushed forward a lot of progressive policies around Net Zero and climate justice. The UK Government is often seen as at best dragging its heels on these issues (England’s water pollution) and at worst sabotaging Scotland’s progress (Deposit Return Scheme).

While green/ climate issues can be seen as divisive; there is clear polling evidence that Scotland pursuing its own tack on these issues is likely to be beneficial to the independence cause.

Why should world-leading Scotland wait for London’s permission to combat the climate crisis?

The Union as a Prison

Most voters with an opinion think the Scottish Government should be able to hold an independence referendum without needing the permission of the UK Government. According to Opinium, undecided voters think the Scottish Government should have the right to hold an independence referendum by a margin of three to one. And the Survation poll found by a margin of four to one that Holyrood should have the balance of power over calling an independence referendum.

So, this is an issue which could also have traction.

Saying now is not the time is not a strategy that will hold for much longer, and unionists don’t have an answer when asked what the route is for leaving this ‘voluntary’ union.

Today’s 16 to 21 year olds were still in Primary school when the 2014 referendum took place, and are increasingly frustrated at the UK Government’s intransigence.

Getting to 60% will make the UK position on #Indyref2 untenable both domestically and internationally.

We need a clear, focused approach to getting these messages across to voters. The Yes movement could learn a lot from the anti-Brexit campaign group: Led by Donkeys. They use publicity stunts and direct action to get the message across and to raise awareness of issues.

Billboards, social media campaigns and simple graphics should convey the overall message:

The union is holding Scotland back!

• Why not use Scotland’s resources to overcome poverty in Scotland rather than subsidise London’s energy bills?

• Why, with all our talent and resources, does Scotland not do as well economically as similar small countries like Denmark, Norway and Ireland?

• Why should world-leading Scotland wait for London’s permission to combat the climate crisis?