Yes opens up a three point lead

New poll shows independence is now only a matter of time

Denis Donoghue

6/23/20232 min read

Different coloured Yes badges from the 2014 campaign
Different coloured Yes badges from the 2014 campaign

The survey sample was weighted by a range of characteristics, including 2014 vote (which I think is a first for Find Out Now). The data was weighted by:

  • Age

  • Gender

  • SEG

  • Scottish region

  • 2019 general election vote

  • 2016 EU referendum vote

  • 2014 Scottish independence referendum vote

Although it didn't include 16 and 17 year olds, the weight of support for Yes among younger age groups is clear from the chart below. Support for the union among under 35s barely reaches a quarter. Conversely, strong union support seems fairly entrenched among the over 65s; with only 31% supporting self-rule for Scots.

A new large-scale survey on Scotland's future has found a solid majority supporting Scottish Independence. Polling company 'Find Out Now' carried out 5,300 interviews between 13th and 20th June 2023, with the question: "If there were a referendum on Scottish independence with the question, “Should Scotland be an independent country?”, how would you vote?"

Using a nationally representative sample of 1,249 from these interviews, and taking account of likelihood to vote, they found that 48% of Scots would support independence, with just 45% preferring to stay under Westminster rule. The remaining 7% were undecided about Scotland's future constitutional status.

The size of the survey means that we can drill down into a lot of detail that smaller surveys can't robustly address. I'll be posting articles with some of these additional insights, over the coming couple of weeks.

A chart showing Yes on 47.9% and No on 45% with 7.1% undecided
A chart showing Yes on 47.9% and No on 45% with 7.1% undecided

Looking at the response by Socio-economic group, support for independence is highest among the AB groups (Managers and Professionals) and also the DE groups (Semi-skilled, unskilled and unemployed). Support among the AB group is stronger now than in 2014; and has likely been bolstered by those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

Support for the union is strongest among those in the C1 grouping; comprising supervisory, junior management and administrative occupations.

In terms of regions, support for Independence is strongest in the Lothians (54%) and Glasgow (53%). Here there is a 16 and 15 point lead over the unionist side for these respective areas. The West of Scotland also has a healthy nine point lead for Yes over No. However, the South of Scotland still has a strong unionist base, with 58% supporting the UK compare with just 35% who want Scotland to govern itself.